The
changing pace of economics
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Sub
Saharan Africa is set to out-perform
other
emerging regions. |
While
I made reference to the economic downturn in our Summer 2008 edition
of Talking Drums, circumstances on the global markets have changed
significantly. We’ve
seen the pound devalue, the naira suffer, US banks go under and
even just in the UK, hundreds of thousands of redundancies have
been announced, while globally experts are predicting another one
to three years of recession.
But what of Africa? The
question is whether the ‘marginalized continent’ is
going to benefit from its lack of interdependence and connections
to the rest of the global market.
Or is it? Perhaps the
question should be whether Africa – as a destination for business,
tourism, resources, skills and innovation – is an opportunity
that can still offer growth despite the financial crisis.
The Economist Intelligence
Unit Global Growth league table for 2009 forecasts that Sub-Saharan
Africa will perform better than other emerging regions. Fully 15
of the 20 top-performing economies in 2009 are in Africa. Several
African nations will actually buck the global trend and experience
a pick-up in real GDP growth, the EIU forecasts.
That includes Malawi
estimated to grow at 8.3%, Angola at 8.2% and Ethiopia at 7.5% compared
to China at 7.5% - and the US at -1%!
Even
as I travel around Africa I can sense the difference. In London
we are constantly reminded of the slump with empty shop fronts,
constant sale signs, dismal headlines and an ongoing discourse around
how long the recession might last. In Cape Town, for example, there
is still an optimism and upbeat atmosphere around ‘business
as usual’. Africa still faces huge challenges, but these obstacles
are not new, and are not caused by the global economic downturn.
So while Africa is not immune, I certainly feel buoyed up and encouraged
by the opportunity in Africa and the potential for growth in 2009
and beyond.
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